2002 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

2002 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
	Fisher: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Rendell: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 50% No data
Governor before election; Mark Schweiker; Republican	Elected Governor ; Ed Rendell; Democratic

The 2002 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2002, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Republican governor Mark Schweiker, who took office in 2001 when Tom Ridge resigned to become Homeland Security Advisor, was eligible to run for a full term, but did not do so. Democrat Ed Rendell, the former mayor of Philadelphia and Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, emerged from a competitive primary to win the general election against Republican Pennsylvania Attorney General Mike Fisher.

Rendell won the election, with commentators attributing his victory to "endless retail politicking" and a hard-working campaign.^[1] The political website PoliticsPA praised Rendell's campaign team of David L. Cohen, David W. Sweet, and Sandi Vito.^[1] Fisher's strategy backfired; Rendell performed well in much of Eastern Pennsylvania and he was able to win by huge margins in even many traditionally Republican suburbs.^[2]

Rendell was the first official from Philadelphia to win the governorship since 1914.^[2] This was the first time since 1826 that a Democrat won all four of Philadelphia's suburban counties and the first time since 1970 that a Democrat won Montgomery County in a gubernatorial election.

Republican primary

Attorney General Mike Fisher ran unopposed for the Republican nomination. Although incumbent Governor Mark Schweiker was eligible to run for election to a full term (he had served only a partial term after Tom Ridge resigned to become Homeland Security Advisor), he chose not to seek his party's nomination. Despite polls showing that Schweiker polled well among the same groups that backed Ridge, the Republican establishment considered Schweiker to be a weak candidate and stood steadfast behind Fisher.^[2]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Ed Rendell, former Mayor of Philadelphia and candidate in 1986
Bob Casey Jr., incumbent Auditor General and son of former Governor Bob Casey Sr.

Campaign

In the Democratic primary, former mayor of Philadelphia Ed Rendell defeated Pennsylvania Auditor General Bob Casey Jr., bucking the "myth that a Philadelphian could never win" a statewide election. Despite strong support from organized labor for Casey, lackluster campaigning combined with Rendell's ability to cast himself as a strong executive allowed him to pull out a primary win.^[3]

Results

Pennsylvania gubernatorial primary election, 2002^[4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Ed Rendell	702,442	56.55%
	Democratic	Bob Casey Jr.	539,794	43.45%
Total votes			1,242,236	100.00%

General election

Campaign

Fisher emphasized Rendell's Philadelphia roots continuously during his campaign and described the mayor as an urban liberal whose programs would require huge tax increases.^[2]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Ed Rendell (D)	Mike Fisher (R)	Other / Undecided
SurveyUSA	October 26–28, 2002	668 (LV)	± 3.9%	56%	37%	7%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[5]	Lean D (flip)	October 31, 2002
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[6]	Likely D (flip)	November 4, 2002

Results

Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2002^[7]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Ed Rendell	1,913,235	53.40
	Republican	Mike Fisher	1,589,408	44.40
	Libertarian	Ken V. Krawchuk	40,923	1.14
	Green	Mike Morrill	38,423	1.07
Total votes			3,581,989	100.00
	Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Alleghany (Largest city: Pittsburgh)
Beaver (largest city: Beaver)
Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown)
Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton)
Schuylkill (Largest city: Pottsville)
Bucks (largest municipality: Bensalem)
Berks (largest borough: Reading)
Chester (largest municipality: West Chester)
Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg)
Delaware (largest city: Upper Darby)
Lackawanna (largest city: Scranton)
Montgomery (largest city: Lower Merion)
Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle)
Luzerne (largest municipality: Wilkes-Barre)
Lehigh (largest municipality: Allentown)
Northampton (largest municipality: Bethlehem)
Washington (largest municipality: Peters Township)

Notes

^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

References

^ ^a ^b "The Best and Worst Campaigns'02". PoliticsPA. The Publius Group. 2002.^{[dead link]}
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Kennedy, John J. (2006). Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests From 1950–2004. University Press of America. ISBN 9780761832799.
^ "The Best and Worst of Primary '02". PoliticsPA. The Publius Group. 2002.^{[dead link]}
^ "Governor, 2002 General Primary". Commonwealth of PA – Elections Information. Pennsylvania Department of State. 2004. Retrieved May 16, 2008.
^ "Governor Updated October 31, 2002 | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. October 31, 2002. Archived from the original on December 8, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
^ "Governors Races". www.centerforpolitics.org. November 4, 2002. Archived from the original on December 12, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
^ "Governor, 2002 General Election". Commonwealth of PA – Elections Information. Pennsylvania Department of State. 2004. Retrieved May 16, 2008.