2018 United States Senate election in Arizona
The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018.[2] Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake did not seek reelection to a second term. The election was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election , other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives , and various other state and local elections .
Primaries were held on August 28, 2018,[3] three days after the death of longtime U.S. Senator John McCain .[4] Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, while Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot, but ended her campaign and endorsed Sinema before Election Day.[5]
The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018,[6] and McSally conceded that day.[7] Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988 . McSally was subsequently appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl .
Background
Arizona , located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912 , the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding , Calvin Coolidge , and Herbert Hoover , the state voted for Democrats until 1952 , when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton 's narrow victory in 1996 . Since then, the state had remained Republican, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016 , although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees.[8] [better source needed ]
Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.[9] Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from former state senator Kelli Ward , who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in 2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.[10] [11] [12]
Republican primary
Candidates
On the ballot
U.S. Representative Martha McSally at the launch of her senatorial bid in January 2018
Former State Senator Kelli Ward at a campaign event prior to the Republican primary in August 2018
Failed to file
Withdrew
Declined
Andy Biggs , U.S. representative from Arizona's 5th congressional district [14]
Jan Brewer , former governor of Arizona[30] [31]
Mark Brnovich , attorney general of Arizona [14]
Jeff DeWit , treasurer of Arizona (nominated as NASA chief financial officer)[32]
Trent Franks , former U.S. representative[33] [34]
Paul Gosar , U.S. representative[35] [36] [37] [38]
Robert Graham , former chair of the Arizona Republican Party [39] [30] [14]
Christine Jones , former GoDaddy executive, candidate for governor in 2014 and candidate for AZ-05 in 2016 [37]
Bill Montgomery , Maricopa County Attorney[40]
Ben Quayle , former U.S. representative[41]
Matt Salmon , former U.S. representative and nominee for governor in 2002 [42] [43] [14]
David Schweikert , U.S. representative from Arizona's 6th congressional district [22] [14] [34]
John Shadegg , former U.S. representative[40] [16]
Endorsements
Martha McSally
Federal officials
United States Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Mayors
Individuals
Suzanne Klapp, Scottsdale city councilwoman[49]
Organizations
Kelli Ward
U.S. Senators
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Sylvia Allen , state senator
Nancy Barto , state senator
Sonny Borrelli , state senator
David Farnsworth , state senator
Mark Finchem , state representative
Travis Grantham , state representative
Gail Griffin , state senator
Al Melvin , former state senator
Becky Nutt , state representative
Russell Pearce , former senate president
Warren Petersen , state senator[64]
U.S. military personnel
Individuals
Organizations
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Joe Arpaio
Martha McSally
Kelli Ward
Other
Undecided
Data Orbital Archived August 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
August 21–22, 2018
600
± 4.0%
18%
48%
22%
1%
8%
OH Predictive Insights
August 14–15, 2018
578
± 4.1%
13%
47%
27%
–
12%
OH Predictive Insights
July 23–25, 2018
576
± 4.1%
15%
35%
27%
–
23%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
June 27 – July 2, 2018
501
± 4.4%
24%
36%
27%
–
14%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
June 21–22, 2018
305
± 5.9%
18%
32%
19%
7%[74]
23%
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
June 19–21, 2018
550
± 4.2%
17%
38%
23%
2%
21%
Marist College
June 17–21, 2018
371
± 6.7%
21%
30%
28%
<1%
21%
OH Predictive Insights
June 11–12, 2018
600
± 4.0%
14%
39%
25%
–
22%
Remington (R) [A]
May 23–24, 2018
2,011
± 2.3%
25%
42%
23%
–
10%
Magellan Strategies (R)
April 11–12 and 15, 2018
755
± 3.6%
26%
36%
25%
6%
7%
OH Predictive Insights
April 10–11, 2018
302
± 5.6%
22%
27%
36%
–
15%
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
January 11–15, 2018
500
± 4.4%
22%
31%
19%
–
27%
OH Predictive Insights
January 9, 2018
504
± 4.4%
29%
31%
25%
–
15%
WPA Intelligence (R) [A]
November 15–16, 2017
500
± 4.4%
–
38%
36%
–
26%
OH Predictive Insights
November 9, 2017
323
± 5.5%
–
34%
42%
–
24%
Revily (R) [B]
October 28–31, 2017
380
± 3.0%
–
21%
32%
15%[75]
34%
Hypothetical polling
with Jay Heiler
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Jay Heiler
Martha McSally
Matt Salmon
David Schweikert
John Shadegg
Kelli Ward
Undecided
Data Orbital
October 26–28, 2017
500
± 4.4%
1%
19%
10%
5%
4%
26%
28%
with Jeff Flake
Results
Results by county: 30–40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
Democratic primary
Candidates
On the ballot
U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema at a campaign event in October 2018
Attorney Deedra Abboud at a campaign event in April 2017
Failed to file
Withdrew
Jim Moss, businessman, activist and former teacher[84] [85]
Declined
Endorsements
Kyrsten Sinema
Federal officials
U.S. senators
Cory Booker , U.S. senator (D-NJ)[100]
Catherine Cortez Masto , U.S. senator (D-NV)[101]
Dennis DeConcini , former U.S. senator (D-AZ)[102]
Tammy Duckworth , U.S. senator (D-IL)[103]
Dick Durbin , U.S. senator (D-IL) and Senate Minority Whip [104]
Kirsten Gillibrand , U.S. senator (D-NY)[105]
Kamala Harris , U.S. senator (D-CA)[106]
Mazie Hirono , U.S. senator (D-HI)[107]
Amy Klobuchar , U.S. senator (D-MN)[108]
Patrick Leahy , U.S. senator (D-VT)[109]
Jeff Merkley , U.S. senator (D-OR)[110]
Chris Murphy , U.S. Senator (D-CT)[111]
Patty Murray , U.S. senator (D-WA)[112]
Gary Peters , U.S. Senator (D-MI)[113]
Chuck Schumer , U.S. senator (D-NY) and Senate Minority Leader [114]
Ron Wyden , U.S. senator (D-OR)[115]
U.S. representatives
State and local politicians
Lela Alston , state representative[117]
Kelli Butler , state representative[102]
Andrea Dalessandro , state senator[117]
Coral Evans, Mayor of Flagstaff [120]
Randy Friese , state representative and assistant house minority leader[88]
Francisco Heredia, Mesa city councilmember[117]
Daniel Hernández Jr. , state representative[117]
Katie Hobbs , state senator and Senate minority leader[117]
Robert Meza , state senator[117]
Mark Mitchell, mayor of Tempe [117]
Joel Navarro, Tempe city councilmember[117]
Lynne Pancrazi , Yuma County supervisor[102]
Laura Pastor, Phoenix City Councilmember [117]
Rebecca Rios , state representative and house minority leader[117]
Regina Romero, Tucson councilmember[117]
Jonathan Rothschild , mayor of Tucson [117]
Anna Tovar , mayor of Tolleson [117]
Daniel Valenzuela, Phoenix City Councilmember [117]
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Polling
Results
Results by county:
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
Removed
Green primary
Candidates
Declared
Removed
Results
Results by county:
General election
Debates
Sinema and McSally in a 2018 senatorial debate
Predictions
Endorsements
Martha McSally (R)
U.S. executive branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
State officials
Local-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Former U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
Cory Booker , U.S. senator (D-NJ)[100]
Catherine Cortez Masto , U.S. senator (D-NV)[101]
Dennis DeConcini , former U.S. senator (D-AZ)[102]
Tammy Duckworth , U.S. senator (D-IL)[103]
Dick Durbin , U.S. senator (D-IL) and Senate Minority Whip [104]
Kirsten Gillibrand , U.S. senator (D-NY)[105]
Kamala Harris , U.S. senator (D-CA)[106]
Mazie Hirono , U.S. senator (D-HI)[107]
Amy Klobuchar , U.S. senator (DFL-MN)[108]
Patrick Leahy , U.S. senator (D-VT)[109]
Jeff Merkley , U.S. senator (D-OR)[110]
Chris Murphy , U.S. senator (D-CT)[111]
Patty Murray , U.S. senator (D-WA)[112]
Gary Peters , U.S. senator (D-MI)[113]
Brian Schatz , U.S. senator (D-HI)[183]
Chuck Schumer , U.S. senator (D-NY) and Senate Minority Leader [114]
Ron Wyden , U.S. senator (D-OR)[115]
U.S. representatives
State and local politicians
Lela Alston , state representative[117]
Kelli Butler , state representative[102]
Andrea Dalessandro , state senator[117]
Randy Friese , state representative and state Assistant House Minority Leader[88]
Daniel Hernández Jr. , state representative[117]
Katie Hobbs , state senator and Senate minority leader[117]
Robert Meza , state senator[117]
Lynne Pancrazi , Yuma County supervisor[102]
Rebecca Rios , state representative and House minority leader[117]
Jonathan Rothschild , mayor of Tucson [117]
Anna Tovar , mayor of Tolleson [117]
Grant Woods , former attorney general of Arizona (Republican)[185]
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)
Total receipts
Total disbursements
Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
$19,287,249
$20,249,341
$1,301,542
Martha McSally (R)
$16,211,836
$13,688,178
$2,523,657
Source: Federal Election Commission[201]
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Martha McSally (R)
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Angela Green (G)
Other
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)
November 4–5, 2018
1,217
± 2.8%
47%
45%
–
2%
6%
HarrisX
November 3–5, 2018
600
± 4.0%
44%
49%
–
–
–
HarrisX
November 2–4, 2018
600
± 4.0%
46%
47%
–
–
–
OH Predictive Insights
November 2–3, 2018
631
± 3.9%
49%
48%
0%
–
1%
Emerson College
November 1–3, 2018
758
± 3.7%
48%
49%
2%
–
2%
HarrisX
November 1–3, 2018
600
± 4.0%
48%
46%
–
–
–
Research Co.
November 1–3, 2018
450
± 4.6%
44%
45%
–
1%
10%
HarrisX
October 31 – November 2, 2018
600
± 4.0%
49%
44%
–
–
–
Gravis Marketing
October 24 – November 2, 2018
1,165
± 2.9%
47%
46%
–
–
7%
HarrisX
October 30 – November 1, 2018
600
± 4.0%
48%
42%
–
–
–
The Trafalgar Group (R)
October 30 – November 1, 2018
2,166
± 2.1%
47%
50%
–
2%
1%
HarrisX
October 29–31, 2018
600
± 4.0%
49%
42%
–
–
–
Vox Populi Polling
October 27–30, 2018
677
± 3.7%
48%
52%
–
–
–
HarrisX
October 24–30, 2018
1,400
± 2.6%
48%
43%
–
–
–
FOX News
October 27–29, 2018
643 LV
± 3.5%
46%
46%
–
3%
5%
710 RV
± 3.5%
44%
45%
–
4%
6%
CNN/SSRS
October 24–29, 2018
702 LV
± 4.4%
47%
51%
–
0%
1%
867 RV
± 4.0%
45%
48%
–
0%
3%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived October 30, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
October 26–28, 2018
400
± 4.9%
47%
45%
4%
–
5%
NBC News/Marist College
October 23–27, 2018
506 LV
± 5.4%
44%
47%
6%
<1%
3%
44%
50%
–
2%
4%
793 RV
± 4.4%
43%
45%
7%
<1%
5%
43%
49%
–
2%
6%
CBS News/YouGov
October 23–26, 2018
972
± 4.1%
44%
47%
–
3%
5%
Ipsos
October 17–26, 2018
799
± 4.0%
48%
46%
–
3%
3%
OH Predictive Insights
October 22–23, 2018
600
± 4.0%
52%
45%
1%
–
2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 15–19, 2018
606
± 4.2%
48%
46%
1%
–
6%
Data Orbital Archived October 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
October 16–17, 2018
600
± 4.0%
41%
47%
3%
1%
8%
Change Research (D)
October 9–10, 2018
783
–
44%
44%
–
–
11%
CBS News/YouGov
October 2–5, 2018
898
–
44%
47%
–
3%
6%
OH Predictive Insights
October 1–2, 2018
600
± 4.0%
47%
41%
4%
–
8%
FOX News
September 29 – October 2, 2018
716 LV
± 3.5%
45%
47%
–
2%
6%
806 RV
± 3.5%
44%
45%
–
2%
8%
Vox Populi Polling
September 29 – October 1, 2018
702
± 3.5%
52%
49%
–
–
–
Suffolk University Archived October 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
September 27–30, 2018
500
± 4.4%
42%
45%
2%
0%
11%
Latino Decisions
September 10–25, 2018
463 LV
–
41%
47%
–
–
11%
610 RV
–
37%
43%
–
–
17%
Emerson College
September 19–21, 2018
650
± 4.4%
39%
45%
–
4%
13%
NBC News/Marist College
September 16–20, 2018
564 LV
± 4.7%
43%
45%
6%
<1%
6%
45%
48%
–
<1%
7%
763 RV
± 4.2%
41%
44%
6%
<1%
8%
44%
47%
–
<1%
9%
CNN/SSRS
September 11–15, 2018
761 LV
± 4.3%
43%
50%
–
0%
3%
854 RV
± 4.1%
41%
48%
–
1%
6%
Ipsos
September 5–14, 2018
1,016
± 4.0%
44%
47%
–
4%
5%
TargetSmart (D) Archived September 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
September 8–13, 2018
800
± 4.0%
46%
51%
–
1%
3%
FOX News
September 8–11, 2018
710 LV
± 3.5%
44%
47%
–
2%
5%
801 RV
± 3.5%
42%
46%
–
3%
7%
Gravis Marketing Archived September 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
September 5–7, 2018
882
± 3.3%
49%
48%
–
–
3%
OH Predictive Insights
September 5–6, 2018
597
± 4.0%
49%
46%
–
–
6%
Data Orbital Archived September 12, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
September 4–6, 2018
550
± 4.2%
42%
46%
–
2%[202]
9%
OH Predictive Insights
July 23–24, 2018
600
± 4.0%
44%
48%
–
–
8%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
June 27 – July 2, 2018
925
± 3.2%
39%
43%
–
–
19%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
June 11 – July 2, 2018
1,290
± 4.5%
44%
48%
–
–
7%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
June 21–22, 2018
650
± 4.0%
32%
40%
–
9%
20%
CBS News/YouGov
June 19–22, 2018
869 LV
–
37%
45%
–
7%
10%
998 RV
± 3.7%
34%
41%
–
8%
14%
NBC News/Marist College
June 17–21, 2018
839
± 4.5%
38%
49%
–
2%
11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
April 2–23, 2018
1,667
± 4.0%
42%
51%
–
–
7%
OH Predictive Insights
April 10–11, 2018
600
± 4.0%
42%
48%
–
–
10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [C]
March 15–16, 2018
547
± 4.2%
41%
46%
–
–
13%
OH Predictive Insights
November 9, 2017
600
± 4.0%
45%
46%
–
–
9%
Revily (R) [B]
October 28–31, 2017
850
± 3.4%
29%
33%
–
–
37%
Hypothetical polling
with Kelli Ward
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Kelli Ward (R)
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Other
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights
July 23–24, 2018
600
± 4.0%
41%
51%
–
8%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
June 27 – July 2, 2018
925
± 3.2%
37%
46%
–
17%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
June 11 – July 2, 2018
1,290
± 4.5%
41%
52%
–
7%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
June 21–22, 2018
650
± 4.0%
26%
43%
8%
23%
YouGov
June 19–22, 2018
867 LV
± 3.7%
38%
46%
6%
9%
996 RV
35%
43%
7%
14%
Marist College
June 17–21, 2018
839
± 4.5%
38%
48%
2%
12%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
April 2–23, 2018
1,667
± 4.0%
43%
51%
–
6%
OH Predictive Insights
April 10–11, 2018
600
± 4.0%
40%
50%
–
10%
OH Predictive Insights
November 9, 2017
600
± 4.0%
43%
46%
–
11%
Revily (R-Ward)
October 28–31, 2017
850
± 3.4%
34%
33%
–
33%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived November 8, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
October 23–26, 2017
500
± 4.4%
27%
34%
–
39%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived August 23, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
August 18–19, 2017
400
± 4.9%
31%
32%
–
38%
with Joe Arpaio
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Joe Arpaio (R)
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Other
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights
July 23–24, 2018
600
± 4.0%
36%
54%
–
10%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
June 27 – July 2, 2018
925
± 3.2%
33%
52%
–
14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
June 11 – July 2, 2018
1,290
± 4.5%
34%
57%
–
9%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
June 21–22, 2018
650
± 4.0%
30%
54%
8%
9%
YouGov
June 19–22, 2018
868 LV
± 3.7%
29%
49%
13%
8%
996 RV
28%
45%
13%
11%
Marist College
June 17–21, 2018
839
± 4.5%
32%
57%
2%
9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios
April 2–23, 2018
1,667
± 4.0%
32%
61%
–
7%
OH Predictive Insights
April 10–11, 2018
600
± 4.0%
33%
59%
–
8%
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
with Jeff Flake
with Matt Salmon
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Matt Salmon (R)
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Undecided
Revily (R-Ward)
October 28–31, 2017
850
± 3.4%
30%
32%
38%
Results
The race was too close to call on election day.[203]
On November 7, 2018 (one day after the election), KGUN 9 reported that McSally held a narrow lead of 0.9%, with thousands of ballots still uncounted.[204] On November 8, Politico reported that Sinema had taken a 9,610-vote lead.[205] Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race for Sinema until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.[206] McSally conceded the race to Sinema that day.[207] The results were certified on December 3, 2018.[208]
This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.[207] Sinema is the first woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona.[209]
By county
County[210]
Kyrsten Sinema Democratic
Martha McSally Republican
Angela GreenGreen
Write-in
Margin
Total votes
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
#
%
Apache
16,298
64.97
7,810
31.13
961
3.83
18
0.07
8,488
33.83
25,087
Cochise
17,383
38.16
26,929
59.12
1,212
2.66
25
0.05
-9,546
-20.96
45,549
Coconino
34,240
61.94
19,249
34.82
1,757
3.18
34
0.06
14,991
27.12
55,280
Gila
7,643
37.28
12,180
59.42
674
3.29
2
0.01
-4,537
-22.13
20,499
Graham
3,368
31.76
6,870
64.77
363
3.42
5
0.05
-3,502
-33.02
10,606
Greenlee
1,042
40.59
1,416
55.16
108
4.21
1
0.04
-374
-14.57
2,567
La Paz
1,609
31.72
3,265
64.36
199
3.92
0
0.00
-1,656
-32.64
5,073
Maricopa
732,761
50.96
672,505
46.77
32,371
2.25
315
0.02
60,256
4.19
1,437,952
Mohave
19,214
26.88
50,209
70.25
2,027
2.84
19
0.03
-30,995
-43.37
71,469
Navajo
16,624
45.37
18,767
51.22
1,238
3.38
11
0.03
-2,143
-5.85
36,640
Pima
221,242
56.65
160,550
41.11
8,710
2.23
66
0.02
60,692
15.54
390,568
Pinal
50,395
42.93
63,782
54.33
3,183
2.71
35
0.03
-13,387
-11.40
117,395
Santa Cruz
9,241
68.51
3,828
28.38
418
3.10
1
0.01
5,413
40.13
13,488
Yavapai
40,160
37.06
65,308
60.26
2,870
2.65
30
0.03
-25,148
-23.21
108,368
Yuma
19,880
45.42
22,532
51.48
1,351
3.09
4
0.01
-2,652
-6.06
43,767
Totals
1,191,100
49.96
1,135,200
47.61
57,442
2.41
566
0.02
55,900
2.34
2,384,308
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Results by congressional districts
Sinema won 5 of the 9 congressional districts.[211]
Voter demographics
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup
Sinema
McSally
No answer
% of voters
Gender
Men
49
49
2
47
Women
51
47
2
53
Age
18–24 years old
N/A
N/A
N/A
4
25–29 years old
N/A
N/A
N/A
4
30–39 years old
57
39
4
17
40–49 years old
50
48
2
17
50–64 years old
44
55
1
29
65 and older
51
48
1
29
Race
White
45
53
2
75
Black
N/A
N/A
N/A
2
Latino
68
30
2
18
Asian
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
Other
N/A
N/A
N/A
3
Race and gender
White men
42
55
3
34
White women
47
52
1
41
Black men
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
Black women
N/A
N/A
N/A
1
Latino men
66
32
2
9
Latina women
70
28
2
9
Others
N/A
N/A
N/A
4
Education
High school or less
50
46
4
25
Some college education
45
54
1
28
Associate Degree
43
53
4
10
Bachelor's Degree
52
47
3
23
Advanced degree
62
37
1
14
Education and race
White college graduates
55
45
N/A
27
White no college degree
39
58
3
48
Non-white college graduates
72
27
1
9
Non-white no college degree
65
33
2
16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees
56
44
N/A
15
White women without college degrees
42
56
2
26
White men with college degrees
53
47
N/A
12
White men without college degrees
35
61
4
22
Non-whites
68
31
1
25
Military service
Veteran
38
59
3
14
Non-veteran
54
45
1
86
Income
Under $30,000
62
34
4
15
$30,000-$49,999
63
36
1
18
$50,000-$99,999
48
49
3
33
$100,000-$199,999
41
58
1
24
Over $200,000
44
56
N/A
9
Party ID
Democrats
97
3
N/A
32
Republicans
12
86
2
38
Independents
50
47
3
31
Party by gender
Democratic men
94
6
N/A
14
Democratic women
99
1
N/A
17
Republican men
6
91
3
15
Republican women
16
83
1
23
Independent men
50
47
3
18
Independent women
50
47
3
13
Ideology
Liberals
94
6
N/A
22
Moderates
63
35
2
38
Conservatives
14
84
2
40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes
53
44
3
15
No
48
50
2
85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care
77
20
3
42
Immigration
16
83
1
31
Economy
39
60
1
18
Gun policy
N/A
N/A
N/A
7
Area type
Urban
60
39
1
43
Suburban
44
54
2
51
Rural
N/A
N/A
N/A
6
Source: CNN [212]
Aftermath
On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat. The seat was left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl , who himself had been appointed following the August 25, 2018 death of John McCain .[213] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019,[214] marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making Arizona the second state to be represented by two women from different parties.[citation needed ] Sinema and McSally are only the second pair of senators from the same state in history to serve together after running against each other the previous year;[citation needed ] the first such instance occurred in Oregon in 1996–1997.[215] Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected.[citation needed ]
Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress[citation needed ] and a special election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish the remainder of McCain's unexpired term (which expired in 2023). McSally was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly in that special election.[216] [217]
Notes
Partisan clients
^ a b This poll was sponsored by McSally's campaign.
^ a b This poll was sponsored by Ward's campaign.
^ This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care, an Affordable Care Act advocacy group, and is affiliated with Democratic candidates.
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^ McLaughlin, Jim; Bean, Bob; Wine, Dean (July 9, 2018). "We are pleased to announce the following endorsements for statewide candidates" . Arizona AFL–CIO – via Facebook.
^ a b "Our Candidates – CWA Political" . CWA Political . Archived from the original on April 3, 2018. Retrieved April 22, 2018 .
^ a b Holly, Jeff; McDermott, Thomas. "Newsletter-May-2018" (PDF) . www.smw359.org/ . SMW Local 359. p. 6. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 28, 2018. Retrieved July 28, 2018 .
^ a b "NEA Fund – Recommended Candidates" . www.neafund.org . Archived from the original on August 1, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018 .
^ a b McLaughlin, Jim (July 26, 2018). "Proud to stand w/ @kyrstensinema in her bid for US Senate. #AZSen" . UFCW Local 99 – via Facebook.
^ a b "Arizona – COMPAC Endorsements – UMWA" . United Mine Workers of America. Archived from the original on May 15, 2018. Retrieved May 15, 2018 .
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^ a b Tiffany Muller (October 12, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate" . End Citizens United.
^ a b "Endorsed Candidates – Equality PAC" . Equality PAC.
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^ a b "HRC Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate" . Human Rights Campaign. September 29, 2017.
^ a b Sittenfeld, Tiernan (April 19, 2018). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for Senate" . League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on April 20, 2018. Retrieved April 20, 2018 .
^ a b "AZ-Sen: Jason Kander Refuses To Let Notorious Racist Joe Arpaio (R) Into Another Position Of Power" . Daily Kos . January 10, 2018. Archived from the original on January 12, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2018 .
^ a b Ricketts, Laura (February 13, 2018). "LESBIAN SUPER PAC (LPAC) ENDORSES KEY CANDIDATES IN ARIZONA, FLORIDA AND TEXAS – LPAC" . LPAC . Archived from the original on March 28, 2018. Retrieved March 28, 2018 .
^ Castillo, Renee (June 27, 2018). "Mesa Chamber Announces 2018 Candidate Endorsements" . Mesa Chamber of Commerce. Archived from the original on July 3, 2018. Retrieved July 3, 2018 .
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^ a b Laguens, Dawn; Liggett, Jodi (April 19, 2018). "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Arizona's Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate" . Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Archived from the original on April 22, 2018. Retrieved April 22, 2018 .
^ a b "2018 Endorsements" . stonewalldemsaz.org . Archived from the original on April 9, 2018. Retrieved April 9, 2018 .
^ Richard Sherzan with 4%, Cheryl Fowler and David Ruben with 3%, Bob Bishop with 2%
^ Ricca, Aaron (September 28, 2017). "Libertarians get the word out at Andy Devine Days Rally" . The Kingman Daily Miner . Archived from the original on June 17, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2017 .
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^ Silver, Nate (September 11, 2018). "Arizona - 2018 Senate Forecast" . FiveThirtyEight . Archived from the original on October 2, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018 .
^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings" . Daily Kos . June 5, 2018. Archived from the original on June 14, 2018. Retrieved June 28, 2018 .
^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings" . Fox News . Archived from the original on July 4, 2018. Retrieved July 10, 2018 .
^ a b Samuels, Brett (October 10, 2018). "George W. Bush, Mitt Romney to visit Arizona to boost Martha McSally" . The Hill . Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. Retrieved October 10, 2018 .
^ Flaherty, Joseph (October 29, 2018). "Family of Betsy DeVos Boosts Martha McSally's Campaign With Donations" . Phoenix New Times . Archived from the original on October 30, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018 .
^ Mike Pence. "Big win for @MarthaMcSally in Arizona! Martha served our nation with distinction in the @usairforce & she will be a great addition to the US Senate helping enact the @realDonaldTrump agenda. Get out and support Martha in November!" . Twitter. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018 .
^ "Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice Endorses Martha McSally For US Senate" . McSally for Senate. November 2, 2018. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018 .
^ Donald J. Trump. "Martha McSally, running in the Arizona Primary for U.S. Senate, was endorsed by rejected Senator Jeff Flake....and turned it down – a first! Now Martha, a great U.S. Military fighter jet pilot and highly respected member of Congress, WINS BIG. Congratulations, and on to November!" . Twitter. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018 .
^ Donald J. Trump. "Martha McSally is an extraordinary woman. She was a very talented fighter jet pilot and is now a highly respected member of Congress. She is Strong on Crime, the Border and our under siege 2nd Amendment. Loves our Military and our Vets. Has my total and complete Endorsement!" . Twitter. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018 .
^ John Boozman. "As a USAF fighter pilot, @MarthaMcSally served bravely & honorably—blazing a bold trail for girls and young women. In Congress she's a leader and powerful advocate for our military, veterans & border security. She'd be a great addition to the US Senate. Good luck Martha! #AZSen" . Twitter.
^ McSally For Senate. "Excited to have Senator Susan Collins in town this week! #AZSEN" . Twitter.
^ Joni Ernst. ".@MarthaMcSally and I wore uniforms – not tutus ... #Veterans need strong voices for them in the Senate. Vote for Martha! #AZSEN" . Twitter. Archived from the original on October 26, 2018. Retrieved October 26, 2018 .
^ "Lindsey Graham on Twitter" . Twitter.
^ "Liz Cheney on Twitter" . Twitter.
^ "Mitt Romney, Gov. Doug Ducey rally for Martha McSally" . The Arizona Republic . Retrieved October 17, 2018 .
^ "State Senator Karen Fann Endorses Martha McSally for United States Senate" . McSally for Senate. October 24, 2018. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018 .
^ "Former Representative Steve Pierce Endorses Martha McSally for Senate" . McSally for Senate. October 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018 .
^ Yvonne Wingett Sanchez (November 1, 2018). "Jan Brewer, Kelli Ward cut radio ad to help Martha McSally in U.S. Senate race" . The Arizona Republic . Retrieved November 2, 2018 .
^ "Maricopa County Attorney Endorses Martha McSally for United States Senate" . McSally for Senate . October 3, 2018. Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2018 .
^ "Rudy Giuliani on Twitter" . Twitter.
^ Kimberly Guilfoyle. "Great to campaign with @MarthaMcSally AZ deserves a strong conservative that supports @realDonaldTrump ... Trump Jr. attends GOP Get Out the Vote rally" . Twitter. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018 .
^ "Campaign officials: Trump Jr. to campaign for McSally" . Fox 10. October 29, 2018. Archived from the original on October 30, 2018. Retrieved November 9, 2018 .
^ "CCAGW PAC Endorses Rep. McSally for U.S. Senate, Three Arizona House Candidates" . CCAGW PAC. September 25, 2018. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved September 30, 2018 .
^ "Small Business Endorses Congresswoman McSally for the U.S. Senate" . NFIB. October 22, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018 .
^ "Editorial: Courier offers picks in partisan races, ballot questions" . The Daily Courier . October 20, 2018. Archived from the original on November 5, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018 .
^ "Martha McSally for Senate" . National Review . October 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018 .
^ Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote" . Twitter. Archived from the original on October 2, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018 .
^ "Obama endorses Kyrsten Sinema and Democrats in Arizona governor, AG races" . Retrieved October 16, 2018 .
^ Brian Schatz. "I'm also sending money to @kyrstensinema because she's in a very tough race for Senate in Arizona. Please help" . Twitter. Archived from the original on October 9, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018 .
^ "AZ-Sen: Rep. Conor Lamb (D. PA) Helps Kyrsten Sinema (D) Get Ready To Defeat Martha McSally (R)" . Daily Kos. August 29, 2018.
^ Grant Woods. ".@KyrstenSinema is a strong and principled leader who will be a great senator for Arizona. As a former Attorney General, I'm proud to endorse Kyrsten because I know that when it comes to keeping our families safe, Kyrsten is tough as nails. #AZsen" . Twitter. Archived from the original on September 29, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018 .
^ Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (November 1, 2018). "Green Party candidate drops out, throws support to Kyrsten Sinema in Senate race" . azcentral .
^ Amy Schumer. "News" . Twitter.
^ Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet ). Retrieved October 20, 2018 – via Twitter .
^ McCubbin III, George (September 8, 2018). "AFGE | AFGE Endorses Arizona's Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate" . www.afge.org . American Federation of Government Employees District 12. Archived from the original on September 10, 2018. Retrieved September 10, 2018 .
^ "Endorsements" . Arizona AFL–CIO. August 10, 2018. Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. Retrieved October 10, 2018 .
^ "Carpenters 2018 Midterm Arizona Endorsements | Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters" . swcarpenters.org . Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018 .
^ "Arizona – Official UAW Endorsements" . uawendorsements.org . United Automobile Workers. Archived from the original on October 28, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018 .
^ "Retiree Group Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate – Retired Americans" . Retired Americans. September 19, 2018. Archived from the original on October 29, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018 .
^ "Kyrsten Sinema – Feminist Majority PAC" . feministmajoritypac.org . Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018 .
^ "Victory Fund Endorses Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema in Pivotal U.S. Senate Race" . LGBTQ Victory Fund. November 9, 2017. Archived from the original on November 11, 2017. Retrieved November 11, 2017 .
^ "Candidates We Endorse and Support – NCPSSM" . National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare. Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018 .
^ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements" . Population Connection . Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018 .
^ "Endorsed Candidates | Rachel's Action Network" . rachelsactionnetwork.org . Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018 .
^ "Candidates – Run with Pride | Electing LGBTQ+ Candidates to Congress" . runwithpride.org . Archived from the original on October 27, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018 .
^ "Don't believe the attack ads. Here's who Kyrsten Sinema and Martha McSally really are" . The Arizona Republic . October 21, 2018.
^ "Campaign finance data" . Archived from the original on September 11, 2018. Retrieved October 31, 2018 .
^ Adam Kokesh (L) with 2%
^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (November 7, 2018). "The McSally-Sinema Senate race is too close to call. Now what happens?" . The Arizona Republic .
^ "Counting continues in tight Arizona Senate race" . KGUN 9 Tucson News . November 7, 2018.
^ Arkin, James (November 8, 2018). "Sinema takes slim lead in too-close-to-call Arizona Senate race" . POLITICO .
^ Zarrell, Matt (November 12, 2018). "Democrat Kyrsten Sinema Declared Winner in Arizona Senate Race" . ABC News. Retrieved November 12, 2018 .
^ a b Leingang, Rachel. "Martha McSally concedes to Kyrsten Sinema after 'hard-fought battle' " . The Arizona Republic .
^ "It's officially over: Top Arizona officials certify November election results" . KTAR.com . December 3, 2018.
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