2024 United States presidential election in Missouri
2024 United States presidential election in Missouri
The 2024 United States presidential election in Missouri is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Missouri voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A nigh-infallible bellwether state for a century from 1904 to 2004 (only backing the losing candidate in 1956 and by just 0.22% and less than 4,000 votes), Missouri has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000 and is widely understood to have lost its bellwether status when Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois failed to carry the state in either of his presidential victories, followed by Republican Donald Trump carrying it by more than 15% in both of his election bids. As a state located almost entirely in the conservative Bible Belt , Missouri has drifted away from being a political bellwether towards the Republican Party in the 21st century and thus is today a strongly red state , with Republicans occupying every statewide office since 2023. The state is once again predicted to be securely won by the Republican candidate in 2024.[2]
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[3]
Primary elections
Republican caucuses
The Missouri Republican caucuses was held on March 2, 2024, alongside the Republican caucuses in Idaho and Michigan.
Missouri Republican caucus, March 2, 2024
Candidate
State delegates
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Bound
Unbound
Total
Donald Trump
924
100.00
54
0
54
Nikki Haley
0
0.00
0
0
0
David Stuckenberg
0
0.00
0
0
0
Total:
924
100
54
0
54
Source: [4] [5]
Democratic primary
The Missouri Democratic primary was held on March 23, 2024, alongside the Democratic primary in Louisiana.
Missouri Democratic primary, March 22, 2024
Candidate
Votes
Percentage
Actual delegate count
Pledged
Unpledged
Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)
16,295
85.3%
61
Uncommitted
2,229
11.7%
3
Marianne Williamson
298
1.6%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn )
178
0.9%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn )
40
0.2%
Jason Palmer
36
0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato
24
0.1%
Total:
19,100
100.0%
64
6
70
Source: [6]
General election
Predictions
Polling
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[a]
Margin of error
Donald TrumpRepublican
Joe BidenDemocratic
Other / Undecided
Emerson College
June 17–19, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3.0%
53%
40%
7%
Emerson College
January 23–28, 2024
1,830 (RV)
± 2.2%
49%
32%
19%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
October 10–11, 2023
806 (RV)
± 3.6%
52%
39%
9%
SurveyUSA
October 27 – November 1, 2022
991 (RV)
± 3.7%
52%
34%
14%
Emerson College
October 26–28, 2022
1,000 (LV)
± 3.0%
53%
37%
9%
Emerson College
September 23–27, 2022
1,160 (LV)
± 2.8%
51%
37%
12%
SurveyUSA
September 14–18, 2022
830 (RV)
± 3.9%
52%
35%
13%
SurveyUSA
July 24–27, 2022
1,981 (RV)
± 2.7%
51%
35%
14%
SurveyUSA
May 11–15, 2022
1,412 (LV)
± 3.2%
50%
35%
15%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
September 18–20, 2021
1,014 (LV)
± 2.9%
55%
36%
9%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout
April 21–22, 2021
933 (LV)
± 3.0%
53%
38%
9%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[a]
Margin of error
Donald TrumpRepublican
Joe BidenDemocratic
Robert Kennedy JrIndependent
Cornel WestIndependent
Jill SteinGreen
Other / Undecided
Emerson College
June 17–19, 2024
1,000 (RV)
± 3.0%
50%
35%
7%
1%
1%
6%
See also
Notes
^ a b Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
References
^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats" . NPR . Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021 .
^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map" . 270toWin.com . Retrieved December 18, 2023 .
^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision" . CNBC .
^ "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Missouri's GOP caucuses" . ABC News . Retrieved March 2, 2024 .[failed verification ]
^ "Missouri primary results" . Associated Press . Retrieved March 2, 2024 .
^ "Missouri Presidential Primary" . The AP. Retrieved March 22, 2024 .
^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings" . cookpolitical.com . Cook Political Report . December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "Presidential Ratings" . insideelections.com . Inside Elections . April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 Electoral College ratings" . centerforpolitics.org . University of Virginia Center for Politics . June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 presidential predictions" . elections2024.thehill.com/ . The Hill . December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 Presidential Forecast" . projects.cnalysis.com/ . CNalysis . December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024 .
^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270" . CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024 .
^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model" . The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024 .
^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast" . FiveThirtyEight . Retrieved June 11, 2024 .
^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map" . RealClearPolitics . June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024 .
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