Under the Electoral (Amendment) Act 2023, there will be 174 TDs at the next election, an increase of 14 seats from the current Dáil, and an increase in the number of constituencies from 39 to 43. This will be the largest Dáil in the history of the state.
In August 2023, the Electoral Commission proposed a Dáil size of 174 TDs to be elected across 43 Dáil constituencies – an increase of 14 TDs and four constituencies.[1] This was the first review of constituencies carried out by the Commission established under the Electoral Reform Act 2022, where previously they had been carried out by a Constituency Commission. This would be the largest size of the Dáil in the history of the State, surpassing the previous number of 166 TDs from 1981 to 2016.[citation needed] The Electoral (Amendment) Act 2023 implemented the recommendations of the commission.[2]
The preliminary results of the 2022 census showed a population of over 5.1 million, which required a minimum Dáil size of 171 TDs.[3] The Commission was required by law to recommend a size of the Dáil of between 171 and 181 TDs.[4] This range reflects the growth in the population of the state, and the requirement of Article 16.6.2° of the Constitution of Ireland that there be one TD elected for no less than every 20,000 of the population and no more than every 30,000.[5]
Under the system of proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote (PR-STV), each voter may mark all candidates in order of preference. The quota is determined at the first count in each constituency by dividing the number of valid votes by one more than the number of seats (therefore, the quota is 25% in a three-seat constituency, 20% in a four-seat constituency, and 16.67% in a five-seat constituency).
Any candidate reaching or exceeding the quota is elected. If fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is removed from the count and the next available preferences on those ballot papers are redistributed until a candidate is elected. If such a candidate now has more votes than the quota, their surplus is distributed to remaining candidates in order of ranking on the ballot papers. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have passed the quota to fill the available seats,[6] or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution then the highest place candidate without a quota is deemed elected.
The outgoing Ceann Comhairle (currently Seán Ó Fearghaíl) is due to be returned automatically, unless he announces to the Dáil that he wishes to retire as a TD.[7]
Date of election
Electoral law provides that the "same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting".[8] The writ of election for the general election must be moved on the dissolution of the Dáil.[9] The election must take place on a day 18 to 25 days (disregarding any excluded day) after the writs have been moved.[10][11][12]
The 33rd Dáil first met on 20 February 2020, and must be dissolved no later than 19 February 2025. This means that, per a calculation in The Irish Times, the latest date the election can be held is 22 March 2025.[13][14]
Four TDs were elected to the European Parliament and took office on 16 July, vacating their seats in the Dáil; a writ to fill the vacancies must be moved within 6 months of that date, unless there has been a dissolution of the Dáil.[18]
Retiring incumbents
The following members of the 33rd Dáil are not seeking re-election:
^MacSharry was elected as a Fianna Fáil TD but left the party in 2022.
Opinion polls
Various organisations conduct regular opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.
The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Irish general election, held on 8 February 2020, to the next election, which can be held no later than March 2025.
^The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
^ abcdThe figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. In the MRBI Poll conducted up to 14 June this figure appears to include all independents as well as all of PBP/S, Aontú and the SocDems.
^Reaper, Luke (20 October 2022). "October Opinion Poll 2022"(PDF). Behaviour & Attitudes. Archived(PDF) from the original on 1 January 2023. Retrieved 1 January 2023.
^Reaper, Luke (16 May 2022). "May Opinion Poll 2022"(PDF). Behaviour and Attitudes. Archived(PDF) from the original on 6 July 2022. Retrieved 30 May 2022.
^Reaper, Luke (13 March 2022). "March Opinion Poll 2022"(PDF). Sunday Times/Behaviour and Attitudes. Archived(PDF) from the original on 13 March 2022. Retrieved 14 March 2022.
^O'Brien, Stephen (12 December 2021). "December 2021 Opinion Poll". The Sunday Times, Ireland edition. Archived from the original on 12 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
^"Ireland Elects". Twitter. 13 November 2021. Archived from the original on 17 November 2021. Retrieved 17 November 2021.
^O'Brien, Stephen (14 November 2021). "November 2021 Opinion Poll". The Sunday Times, Ireland edition. Archived from the original on 14 November 2021. Retrieved 14 November 2021.
^"Ireland Elects". Twitter. 17 October 2021. Archived from the original on 19 October 2021. Retrieved 19 October 2021.
^Reaper, Luke (16 October 2021). "October 2021 Opinion Poll"(PDF). Behaviour and Attitudes. Archived(PDF) from the original on 17 October 2021. Retrieved 19 October 2021.
^McShane, Ian (11 September 2021). "September 2021 Opinion Poll"(PDF). Behaviour and Attitudes. Archived(PDF) from the original on 12 September 2021. Retrieved 13 September 2021.
^McShane, Ian (19 July 2021). "July 2021 Opinion Poll"(PDF). Behaviour and Attitudes. Archived(PDF) from the original on 18 July 2021. Retrieved 25 July 2021.
^Electoral Act 1992, s. 36: Re-election of outgoing Chairman of Dáil (No. 23 of 1992, s. 36). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Archived from the original on 8 December 2015. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 16 June 2020.
^Cox, James (31 December 2023). "2024: A massive year of elections looms". BreakingNews.ie. The Irish Times DAC. Archived from the original on 2 July 2024. Retrieved 1 July 2024. The next general election has to be held by March 2025
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