2004 United States presidential election in Colorado

2004 United States presidential election in Colorado
Turnout	88.6% (of registered voters) ; 62.7% (of voting age population)
Bush 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90%	Kerry 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80%
President before election; George W. Bush; Republican	Elected President ; George W. Bush; Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Colorado took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Colorado was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 4.67% margin of victory. Prior to the election, ten of twelve news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state, although both campaigns targeted it as the Democratic candidate, John Kerry, was born in Colorado. On election day, Bush did carry Colorado, but by only about half the 8.4% margin he won over Al Gore in 2000. Additionally, Colorado voters decided not to pass a referendum that would have split their electoral vote for this and future presidential elections.

As of the 2020 presidential election^[update], this is the last time the Republican nominee carried Colorado in a presidential election, as well as Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, Larimer County, and Ouray County.^[1] This is also the only presidential election that Broomfield County, created in 2001, has voted Republican.^[1] It was also the first time any candidate received a million votes in the state. It was also the last time Colorado voted to the right of the nation as a whole in a presidential election. Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Clear Creek, Eagle, Gunnison, or Routt Counties since William Howard Taft in 1908, as well as the first to do so without carrying La Plata County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924, and the first to do so without carrying San Juan County since Herbert Hoover in 1928. It also marked the only time since 1972 that the Democratic nominee lost their birth state.

Colorado was 1 of 9 states to back George W. Bush twice that only backed George H. W. Bush once, and 1 of 3 states to back George W. Bush twice but have not been won by a Republican since, the others being Nevada and Virginia.

Primaries

2004 Colorado Democratic primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[2]


Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Lean R
Associated Press	Lean R
CNN	Likely R
Cook Political Report	Lean R
Newsweek	Lean R
New York Times	Lean R
Rasmussen Reports	Likely R
Research 2000	Lean R
Washington Post	Toss-up
Washington Times	Lean R
Zogby International	Likely D (flip)
Washington Dispatch	Likely R

Polling

Although considered a battleground state, Bush won almost every pre-election poll. The final three polls averaged Bush leading with 51% to 44%.^[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,598,226.^[4] Kerry raised $3,229,631.^[5]

Advertising and visits

In the fall election campaign, the Republican ticket visited Colorado 5 times. The Democratic ticket visited 7 times.^[6] Bush and Kerry also heavily advertised each week. Bush spent just over $400,000 each week. Kerry spent over $500,000 each week.^[7]

Analysis

The key to Bush's victory in the state was winning most of the largely populated counties, such as Jefferson County, Douglas County, El Paso County, Arapahoe County, and Larimer County. Combined with his strength in rural Colorado, this offset Kerry's strength in Denver and Boulder County and in several smaller counties hosting ski resorts, such as Gunnison (Crested Butte), Eagle (Vail), Routt (Steamboat Springs), and La Plata (Purgatory Resort).

Nevertheless, Bush's margin in Colorado was reduced substantially with respect to 2000, even as nationally he improved from losing the popular vote by 0.5% to winning it by 2.5%. Kerry flipped seven counties—Gunnison, Eagle, Routt, La Plata, Clear Creek, Conejos, and San Juan, the last of which voted Democratic for the first time since Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide.^[a]^[8] Most critically, however, Bush's vote share in the city of Denver dipped from 30.9% to 29.3%--a lower vote share than Dole had received in the city in 1996—and his margin of defeat in Denver swelled from 31.0% to 40.3%, as Kerry won the highest vote share in the city of any nominee in over a century. Similarly, in Boulder County, the other large blue jurisdiction in the state at the time, Bush's vote share dipped from 36.4% to 32.4%--again, below Dole's in 1996—and Kerry expanded Gore's 13.7% margin to 33.9%, as he posted the best showing in the county of any nominee since Eisenhower in 1956. Meanwhile, Bush's margin shrank markedly in Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer Counties, in all of which Kerry gained substantially on Gore. Bush's vote share actually receded slightly in Arapahoe and Larimer. All of these trends continued into 2008 and beyond, contributing to making Colorado a lean-Democratic, and, by 2020, a relatively solidly Democratic, state. Despite what at the time was a historically low vote share in Denver, Bush remains, as of 2020, the last Republican to have cracked even a quarter of the vote in Denver.

At the same time, Bush also had areas of improvement in Colorado. He increased his margin in then-staunchly Republican El Paso County by 1.5%, and cut Kerry's margin in Pueblo County, historically the largest Democratic stronghold in the state, from 11.3% to 6.3%, posting the best showing for a Republican in the county since 1984. He also flipped Huerfano County, becoming the first Republican to carry it since Nixon's 1972 landslide;^[8] his win there reflected what was, for a Republican, his strong appeal amongst Hispanic voters, which also helped him narrowly carry New Mexico and boosted his margin in his home state of Texas.

Bush carried Colorado despite it being Kerry's birth state. Ironically, Bush simultaneously lost his own birth state of Connecticut, making this the only election since 1864 where neither candidate carried their birth state.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Colorado^[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	1,101,255	51.69%	9
	Democratic	John Kerry	1,001,732	47.02%	0
	Reform	Ralph Nader	12,718	0.60%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	7,664	0.36%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	2,562	0.12%	0
	Green	David Cobb	1,591	0.07%	0
	Independent	Stanford Andress	804	0.04%	0
	Independent	Write-Ins	700	0.03%	0
	Concerns of People	Gene Amondson	378	0.02%	0
	Socialist Equality	Bill Van Auken	329	0.02%	0
	Socialist Workers	Roger Calero	241	0.01%	0
	Socialist	Walt Brown	216	0.01%	0
	Prohibition	Earl Dodge	140	0.01%	0
Totals			2,130,330	100.00%	9
Voter turnout (Voting Age)					62.7%

Results by county

County	George W. Bush Republican		John Kerry Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total votes cast
Adams	65,912	48.22%	69,122	50.57%	1,643	1.20%	-3,210	-2.35%	136,677
Alamosa	3,179	50.63%	3,017	48.05%	83	1.32%	162	2.58%	6,279
Arapahoe	119,475	51.42%	110,262	47.45%	2,628	1.13%	9,213	3.97%	232,365
Archuleta	3,601	61.67%	2,141	36.67%	97	1.66%	1,460	25.00%	5,839
Baca	1,680	76.85%	483	22.10%	23	1.05%	1,197	54.75%	2,186
Bent	1,338	62.09%	785	36.43%	32	1.48%	553	25.66%	2,155
Boulder	51,586	32.39%	105,564	66.28%	2,109	1.33%	-53,978	-33.89%	159,259
Broomfield	12,007	51.68%	10,935	47.06%	293	1.26%	1,072	4.62%	23,235
Chaffee	4,875	55.59%	3,766	42.94%	129	1.47%	1,109	12.65%	8,770
Cheyenne	923	81.39%	198	17.46%	13	1.14%	725	63.93%	1,134
Clear Creek	2,522	44.93%	2,989	53.25%	102	1.81%	-467	-8.32%	5,613
Conejos	1,864	49.01%	1,894	49.80%	45	1.18%	-30	-0.79%	3,803
Costilla	566	32.16%	1,170	66.48%	24	1.36%	-604	-34.32%	1,760
Crowley	1,006	67.38%	478	32.02%	9	0.60%	528	35.36%	1,493
Custer	1,657	68.25%	739	30.44%	32	1.32%	918	37.81%	2,428
Delta	9,722	68.66%	4,224	29.83%	213	1.51%	5,498	38.83%	14,159
Denver	69,903	29.27%	166,135	69.56%	2,788	1.17%	-96,232	-40.29%	238,826
Dolores	785	68.44%	333	29.03%	29	2.53%	452	39.41%	1,147
Douglas	80,651	66.54%	39,661	32.72%	889	0.73%	40,990	33.82%	121,201
Eagle	8,533	46.10%	9,744	52.64%	234	1.26%	-1,211	-6.54%	18,511
El Paso	161,361	66.74%	77,648	32.11%	2,779	1.15%	83,713	34.63%	241,788
Elbert	8,389	73.82%	2,834	24.94%	141	1.24%	5,555	48.88%	11,364
Fremont	12,313	66.46%	5,933	32.03%	280	1.51%	6,380	34.43%	18,526
Garfield	11,123	53.87%	9,228	44.69%	296	1.44%	1,895	9.18%	20,647
Gilpin	1,329	41.58%	1,807	56.54%	60	1.88%	-478	-14.96%	3,196
Grand	4,260	55.99%	3,243	42.62%	106	1.40%	1,017	13.37%	7,609
Gunnison	3,479	41.32%	4,782	56.79%	159	1.88%	-1,303	-15.47%	8,420
Hinsdale	355	58.97%	236	39.20%	11	1.83%	119	19.77%	602
Huerfano	1,701	50.09%	1,656	48.76%	39	1.15%	45	1.33%	3,396
Jackson	710	76.02%	210	22.48%	14	1.50%	500	53.54%	934
Jefferson	140,644	51.79%	126,558	46.60%	4,366	1.61%	14,086	5.19%	271,568
Kiowa	712	79.82%	172	19.28%	8	0.90%	540	60.54%	892
Kit Carson	2,721	77.70%	729	20.82%	52	1.50%	1,992	56.88%	3,502
La Plata	11,704	45.87%	13,409	52.56%	400	1.57%	-1,705	-6.69%	25,513
Lake	1,261	42.76%	1,623	55.04%	65	2.21%	-362	-12.28%	2,949
Larimer	75,884	51.82%	68,266	46.62%	2,286	1.56%	7,618	5.20%	146,436
Las Animas	3,196	48.48%	3,300	50.06%	96	1.46%	-104	-1.58%	6,592
Lincoln	1,819	77.83%	503	21.52%	15	0.64%	1,316	56.31%	2,337
Logan	6,168	70.36%	2,491	28.42%	107	1.22%	3,677	41.94%	8,766
Mesa	41,539	67.12%	19,564	31.61%	782	1.27%	21,975	35.51%	61,885
Mineral	383	61.87%	227	36.67%	9	1.45%	156	25.20%	619
Moffat	4,247	74.18%	1,355	23.67%	123	2.15%	2,892	50.51%	5,725
Montezuma	6,988	63.44%	3,867	35.11%	160	1.45%	3,121	28.33%	11,015
Montrose	11,218	69.17%	4,776	29.45%	225	1.39%	6,442	39.72%	16,219
Morgan	6,787	68.31%	3,039	30.59%	110	1.10%	3,748	37.72%	9,936
Otero	4,947	60.48%	3,164	38.68%	69	0.85%	1,783	21.80%	8,180
Ouray	1,402	51.53%	1,278	46.97%	41	1.51%	124	4.56%	2,721
Park	4,781	57.21%	3,445	41.22%	131	1.57%	1,336	15.99%	8,357
Phillips	1,717	73.85%	582	25.03%	26	1.12%	1,135	48.82%	2,325
Pitkin	2,784	30.08%	6,335	68.44%	137	1.48%	-3,551	-38.36%	9,256
Prowers	3,392	71.49%	1,308	27.57%	45	0.95%	2,084	43.92%	4,745
Pueblo	31,117	46.31%	35,369	52.64%	701	1.04%	-4,252	-6.33%	67,187
Rio Blanco	2,403	80.02%	566	18.85%	34	1.14%	1,837	61.17%	3,003
Rio Grande	3,448	62.40%	2,006	36.30%	72	1.30%	1,442	26.10%	5,526
Routt	5,199	44.20%	6,392	54.34%	171	1.46%	-1,193	-10.14%	11,762
Saguache	1,163	41.49%	1,594	56.87%	46	1.64%	-431	-15.38%	2,803
San Juan	216	44.44%	253	52.06%	17	3.50%	-37	-7.62%	486
San Miguel	1,079	26.85%	2,876	71.56%	64	1.59%	-1,797	-44.71%	4,019
Sedgwick	971	71.40%	374	27.50%	15	1.10%	597	43.90%	1,360
Summit	5,370	39.10%	8,144	59.29%	221	1.62%	-2,774	-20.19%	13,735
Teller	8,094	68.35%	3,556	30.03%	192	1.62%	4,538	38.32%	11,842
Washington	2,050	81.03%	455	17.98%	25	0.98%	1,595	63.05%	2,530
Weld	55,591	62.71%	31,868	35.95%	1,194	1.34%	23,723	26.76%	88,653
Yuma	3,456	75.81%	1,064	23.34%	39	0.85%	2,392	52.47%	4,559
Total	1,101,256	51.69%	1,001,725	47.02%	27,344	1.28%	99,531	4.67%	2,130,325

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Huerfano (largest municipality: Walsenburg)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Clear Creek (largest municipality: Idaho Springs)
Conejos (largest municipality: Manassa)
Eagle (largest municipality: Edwards)
Gunnison (largest municipality: Gunnison)
La Plata (largest municipality: Durango)
Routt (largest municipality: Steamboat Springs)
San Juan (largest municipality: Silverton)

Results by congressional district

Bush won 4 of 7 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.^[10]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	31%	68%	Diana DeGette
2nd	41%	58%	Mark Udall
3rd	55%	44%	Scott McInnis
3rd	55%	44%	John Salazar
4th	58%	41%	Marilyn Musgrave
5th	66%	33%	Joel Hefley
6th	60%	39%	Tom Tancredo
7th	48%	51%	Bob Beauprez

Electors

Technically the voters of Colorado cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Colorado is allocated 9 electors because it has seven congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of nine electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all nine electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.^[11]

Theodore S. Halaby
Robert A. Martinez
Lilly Y. Nunez
Cynthia H. Murphy
Sylvia Morgan-Smith
Diane B. Gallagher
Vicki A. Edwards
Frances W. Owens
Booker T. Graves

Failed election reform

There was a Constitutional amendment put on the ballot in the state to alter the way the state's electors would be distributed among presidential candidates, but was rejected by the voters in 2004.

Notes

^ San Juan County actually gave a plurality to Independent Ross Perot in 1992, but gave a Republican plurality in every other presidential election between 1968 and 2000.