Saanich—Gulf Islands

Saanich—Gulf Islands
British Columbia electoral district
	Saanich—Gulf Islands in relation to other electoral districts in the Vancouver Island area
Federal electoral district
Legislature	House of Commons
MP	Elizabeth May; Green
;
District created	1987
First contested	1988
Last contested	2021
District webpage	profile, map
Demographics
Population (2011)	104,285
Electors (2021)	93,538
Area (km²)	518
Pop. density (per km²)	201.3
Census division(s)	Capital
Census subdivision(s)	Saanich, Central Saanich, Sidney, North Saanich, Capital F, Capital G, Capital H, Cole Bay 3, Union Bay 4, East Saanich 2, South Saanich 1

Saanich—Gulf Islands is a federal electoral district in British Columbia, Canada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1988. It is named for its geographical location across the Gulf Islands and Saanich Peninsula in the Vancouver Island region.

Demographics

Panethnic groups in Saanich—Gulf Islands (2011−2021)
Panethnic group	2021^[2]		2016^[3]		2011^[4]
Panethnic group	Pop.	%	Pop.	%	Pop.	%
European^[a]	88,690	79.64%	85,125	80.99%	85,695	83.94%
East Asian^[b]	8,705	7.82%	8,175	7.78%	6,740	6.6%
Indigenous	4,825	4.33%	4,675	4.45%	3,885	3.81%
South Asian	3,820	3.43%	3,285	3.13%	2,350	2.3%
Southeast Asian^[c]	2,345	2.11%	1,655	1.57%	1,330	1.3%
African	860	0.77%	705	0.67%	640	0.63%
Latin American	785	0.7%	530	0.5%	490	0.48%
Middle Eastern^[d]	670	0.6%	440	0.42%	530	0.52%
Other^[e]	660	0.59%	530	0.5%	440	0.43%
Total responses	111,360	98.08%	105,110	97.92%	102,085	97.89%
Total population	113,541	100%	107,339	100%	104,285	100%
Notes: Totals greater than 100% due to multiple origin responses. Demographics based on 2012 Canadian federal electoral redistribution riding boundaries.

More than 21 percent of Saanich—Gulf Islands' residents are immigrants, and more than 19 percent are older than 65, making this the riding with the third largest senior population in Canada. The riding has a median age of 48.3, making it the riding with the highest median age in Canada.^[5] The average family income is $70,814; unemployment is 5.9 percent.

According to the 2016 Canadian census; 2013 representation

Languages: 83.8% English, 2.3% Mandarin, 2.1% Cantonese, 1.5% German, 1.5% French, 1.2% Punjabi
Religions (2011): 46.9% Christian (12.2% Catholic, 10.6% Anglican, 7.8% United Church, 2.2% Baptist, 1.7% Lutheran, 1.5% Presbyterian, 1.1%% Pentecostal, 10.0% Other), 1.3% Buddhist, 1.2% Sikh, 47.3% No religion^[6]
Median income (2015): $37,376
Average income (2015): $49,898

Geography

The riding of Saanich—Gulf Islands consists of the north part of the Municipality of Saanich, as well as the municipalities of Central Saanich, North Saanich, and Sidney on Vancouver Island. The district also includes a number of the southern Gulf Islands, including Salt Spring Island, the Pender Islands, Galiano Island, Mayne Island and Saturna Island. The district's southeastern border runs along the University of Victoria.

History

The electoral district was created in 1987 from Esquimalt—Saanich and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands ridings.

The 2012 federal electoral boundaries redistribution concluded that the electoral boundaries of Saanich—Gulf Islands should be adjusted, and a modified electoral district of the same name will be contested in future elections.^[7] The redefined Saanich—Gulf Islands loses a small portion of its current territory in the urbanized portion of Saanich to the new district of Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke. These new boundaries were legally defined in the 2013 representation order, which came into effect upon the call of the 42nd Canadian federal election, which was held October 19, 2015.^[8]

Political geography

Despite the usually close vote between the various right-leaning parties, the Canadian Alliance, Reform and Conservative parties consistently won the district from 1993 to 2011. From 1953 to 2024, the riding and its predecessor, Esquimalt—Saanich, were only won by a non-conservative candidate five times: 1968 to Liberal David Anderson, in 1988 to New Democrat Lynn Hunter, and in 2011, 2015 and 2019 to Green party leader Elizabeth May, who in 2015 won every poll-district within the constituency. The 1988 Conservative loss is attributed to vote splitting between the Progressive Conservatives and the new Reform party. Despite a Conservative majority in 2011, the Greens won their very first elected seat here and it went on to become their only stronghold in the country. The peninsular portion of the riding is more competitive, with significant support for all parties except the Liberals. However, the Gulf Islands have probably the strongest Green support in the country, with many voters being environmentally conscious, moderate retirees, as well as a notable artist population. Even with the Green collapse nationally in 2021, May held on with 37%, although it was her lowest voteshare in the riding.

Riding associations

Riding associations are the local branches of political parties:

Party		Association name	President	HQ address	HQ city
	Conservative	Saanich—Gulf Islands Conservative Association	Ryan T. Trelford	Post Office Box 606	Sidney
	Green	Saanich—Gulf Islands Green Party EDA	Dan Kells	Post Office Box 20076	Sidney
	Liberal	Saanich—Gulf Islands Federal Liberal Association	Sulo Saravanabawan	460-580 Hornby Street	Vancouver
	New Democratic	Saanich—Gulf Islands Federal NDP Riding Association	Sabina Singh		Saanich

Members of Parliament

This riding has elected the following members of Parliament:

Parliament	Years		Party
Saanich—Gulf Islands Riding created from Esquimalt—Saanich and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands
34th	1988–1993	Lynn Hunter	New Democratic
35th	1993–1997	Jack Frazer	Reform
36th	1997–2000	Gary Lunn	Reform
36th	2000–2000		Alliance
37th	2000–2003		Alliance
37th	2003–2004		Conservative
38th	2004–2006
39th	2006–2008
40th	2008–2011
41st	2011–2015	Elizabeth May	Green
42nd	2015–2019
43rd	2019–2021
44th	2021–present

Current member of Parliament

As of 2024, the district's member of Parliament is Green Party leader Elizabeth May. She was first elected in 2011 and was the first Green MP to be elected to the House of Commons.^[9] She defeated Conservative incumbent and cabinet minister Gary Lunn.^[10]^[11]^[12]

Election results

Graph of election results in Saanich—Gulf Islands (1988-,minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)

v t e 2021 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Green	Elizabeth May	24,648	37.62	-11.47	$85,326.87
	Conservative	David Busch	14,775	22.55	+2.32	$91,482.76
	Liberal	Sherri Moore-Arbour	12,056	18.40	+1.78	47,983.06
	New Democratic	Sabina Singh	11,959	18.25	+5.55	$44,510.15
	People's	David Hilderman	1,943	2.97	+1.61	$0.00
	Communist	Dock Currie	141	0.22	-	$0.00
Total valid votes/Expense limit			65,522	99.43	–	$121,248.58
Total rejected ballots			374	0.57
Turnout			65,896	70.45	-4.18
Eligible voters			93,538
	Green hold		Swing
Source: Elections Canada^[13]

2021 federal election redistributed results^[14]
Party		Vote	%
	Green	25,136	35.77
	Conservative	15,915	22.65
	New Democratic	13,738	19.55
	Liberal	13,216	18.81
	People's	2,115	3.01
	Others	156	0.22

v t e 2019 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Green	Elizabeth May	33,454	49.09	-5.31	$87,482.73
	Conservative	David Busch	13,784	20.23	+0.77	none listed
	Liberal	Ryan Windsor	11,326	16.62	-0.08	none listed
	New Democratic	Sabina Singh	8,657	12.70	+3.63	none listed
	People's	Ron Broda	929	1.36	–	none listed
Total valid votes/expense limit			68,150	99.53
Total rejected ballots			323	0.47	+0.18
Turnout			68,473	74.63	-4.05
Eligible voters			91,752
	Green hold		Swing		-3.04
Source: Elections Canada^[15]^[16]

v t e 2015 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Green	Elizabeth May	37,070	54.40	+7.99	$191,615.15
	Conservative	Robert Boyd	13,260	19.46	−17.02	$148,289.09
	Liberal	Tim Kane	11,380	16.70	+10.64	$56,913.03
	New Democratic	Alicia Cormier	6,181	9.07	−1.97	$52,539.33
	Libertarian	Meghan Jess Porter	249	0.37	–	$231.52
Total valid votes/expense limit			68,140	99.71		$223,670.30
Total rejected ballots			201	0.29	–
Turnout			68,341	78.68	–
Eligible voters			86,863
	Green hold		Swing		+12.50
Source: Elections Canada^[17]^[18]^[19]

2011 federal election redistributed results^[20]
Party		Vote	%
	Green	28,993	46.42
	Conservative	22,785	36.48
	New Democratic	6,898	11.04
	Liberal	3,787	6.06

v t e 2011 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Green	Elizabeth May	31,890	46.33	+35.88	$87,738
	Conservative	Gary Lunn	24,544	35.66	−7.77	$89,604
	New Democratic	Edith Loring-Kuhanga	8,185	11.89	+6.20	$66,273
	Liberal	Renée Hetherington	4,208	6.11	−33.25	$50,002
Total valid votes/expense limit			68,827	100.0		$293,617
Total rejected ballots			160	0.23
Turnout			68,987	75.25
Eligible voters			91,673
	Green gain from Conservative		Swing		+21.82

v t e 2008 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	Gary Lunn	27,988	43.43	+6.28
	Liberal	Briony Penn	25,367	39.36	+13.28
	Green	Andrew Lewis	6,732	10.45	+0.51
	New Democratic	Julian West	3,667	5.69	−20.85
	Libertarian	Dale P. Leier	246	0.38	–
	Western Block	Patricia O'Brien	195	0.3	+0.03
	Canadian Action	Jeremy Arney	139	0.2	–
	Christian Heritage	Dan Moreau	114	0.2	–
Total valid votes			64,448	100.0
Total rejected ballots			179	0.27
Turnout			64,639	70.40
	Conservative hold		Swing		−3.50
Julian West was selected as the New Democratic Party candidate for the 2008 election, but withdrew after the filing deadline following a scandal.^[21] Due to the late withdrawal his name remained on the ballot.

v t e 2006 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Conservative	Gary Lunn	24,416	37.15	+2.58	$80,272
	New Democratic	Jennifer Burgis	17,455	26.54	+4.96	$50,412
	Liberal	Sheila Orr	17,144	26.08	−0.70	$79,489
	Green	Andrew Lewis	6,533	9.94	−6.77	$19,061
	Western Block	Patricia O'Brien	183	0.27	–	$0
Total valid votes			65,721	100.0
Total rejected ballots			134	0.20
Turnout			65,855	73.2
	Conservative hold		Swing		−1.19

v t e 2004 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Conservative	Gary Lunn	22,050	34.57	−18.86	$81,613
	Liberal	David Mulroney	17,082	26.78	−5.51	$61,819
	New Democratic	Jennifer Burgis	13,763	21.58	+13.56	$40,318
	Green	Andrew Lewis	10,662	16.71	+11.20	$79,731
	Independent	Mary Moreau	214	0.33	–	$12
Total valid votes			63,771	100.00
Total rejected ballots			159	0.25
Turnout			63,930	73.97
	Conservative hold		Swing		−6.68
Conservative change is from a combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative votes.

v t e 2000 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Alliance	Gary Lunn	25,392	43.15	+0.09	$61,497
	Liberal	Karen Knott	19,002	32.29	+0.82	$63,669
	Progressive Conservative	Don Page	6,049	10.28	+2.76	$10,385
	New Democratic	Pat O'Neill	4,721	8.02	−6.31	$9,666
	Green	Wally Du Temple	3,243	5.51	+2.77	$7,217
	Natural Law	Kathleen Lapeyrouse	217	0.36	−0.07	$100
	Independent	Dan Moreau	123	0.20	–
	Communist	Charley Stimac	88	0.14	–	$189
Total valid votes			58,835	100.00
Total rejected ballots			165	0.28
Turnout			59,000	70.60
	Alliance hold		Swing		−0.36
Canadian Alliance change is based on the Reform Party.

v t e 1997 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Reform	Gary Lunn	24,275	43.06	+5.91	$61,075
	Liberal	Clark Roberts	17,742	31.47	+5.45	$59,743
	New Democratic	Chuck Beyer	8,080	14.33	−4.53	$29,672
	Progressive Conservative	Marilyn Loveless	4,243	7.52	−4.00	$23,349
	Green	Julia Lerner	1,546	2.74	–	$745
	Natural Law	Andy Guest	248	0.43	−0.31	$321
	Canadian Action	Valerie Rampone	234	0.41	–	$4,335
Total valid votes			56,368	100.00
Total rejected ballots			181	0.32
Turnout			56,549	74.26
	Reform hold		Swing		+0.23

1993 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Reform	Jack Frazer	26,016	37.15	+24.67
	Liberal	Alex Phillips	18,226	26.02	+8.40
	New Democratic	Lynn Hunter	13,207	18.86	-16.54
	Progressive Conservative	Marilyn Loveless	8,070	11.52	-21.94
	National	Judith Rayburn	3,730	5.33	–
	Natural Law	Andy Guest	521	0.74	–
	Independent	C.R. Bob Ward	215	0.31	–
	Canada Party	Arleigh Rolind	52	0.07	–
Total valid votes			70,037	100.0
	Reform gain from New Democratic		Swing		+8.14

1988 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	New Democratic	Lynn Hunter	23,168	35.40
	Progressive Conservative	Patrick D. Crofton	21,900	33.46
	Liberal	Kathryn Clout	11,534	17.62
	Reform	Bob Slavick	8,165	12.48
	Independent	Patrick Kelly	216	0.33
	Libertarian	William St. John Buckler	214	0.33
	Independent	Doug Christie	172	0.26
	Communist	Ernie Knott	78	0.12
Total valid votes			65,447	100.0
This riding was created from Esquimalt—Saanich and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands, which elected a Progressive Conservative and a New Democrat, respectively, in the previous election. Patrick Crofton was the incumbent from Esquimalt—Saanich.

References

"Saanich—Gulf Islands (Code 59024) Census Profile". 2011 census. Government of Canada - Statistics Canada. Retrieved March 6, 2011.
Library of Parliament Riding Profile 1987–1996
Library of Parliament Riding Profile 1996–2005
Expenditures – 2004
Expenditures – 2000
Expenditures – 1997

Notes

^ Statistic includes all persons that did not make up part of a visible minority or an indigenous identity.
^ Statistic includes total responses of "Chinese", "Korean", and "Japanese" under visible minority section on census.
^ Statistic includes total responses of "Filipino" and "Southeast Asian" under visible minority section on census.
^ Statistic includes total responses of "West Asian" and "Arab" under visible minority section on census.
^ Statistic includes total responses of "Visible minority, n.i.e." and "Multiple visible minorities" under visible minority section on census.

^ ^a ^b Statistics Canada: 2011
^ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 26, 2022). "Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
^ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 27, 2021). "Census Profile, 2016 Census". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
^ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (November 27, 2015). "NHS Profile". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
^ "Census « Pundits' Guide to Canadian Federal Elections". Punditsguide.ca. Retrieved May 13, 2010.
^ "2011 National Household Survey Profile - Federal electoral district (2013 Representation Order)". May 8, 2013.
^ Final Report – British Columbia
^ Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts
^ Hunter, Justine (May 3, 2011). "Elizabeth May wins first seat for Greens". The Globe and Mail. Toronto. Archived from the original on May 7, 2011. Retrieved May 29, 2015.
^ Harnett, Cindy E.; Lavoie, Judith; Wilson, Carla; Chamberlain, Adrian. "Elizabeth May makes political history as first Green MP; unseats cabinet minister". Vancouver Sun. Archived from the original on March 2, 2019. Retrieved March 30, 2020.
^ Wintonyk, Darcy (May 2, 2011). "Green Party makes history: Elizabeth May wins seat". British Columbia CTV News. Retrieved March 30, 2020.
^ Geyer, Felix von (May 3, 2011). "Canada's Green party looks to bright future following Elizabeth May victory | Felix von Geyer". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved March 30, 2020.
^ "Election Night Results – September 20, 2021 Federal Election". Elections Canada. Retrieved September 28, 2021.
^ "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
^ "List of confirmed candidates". Elections Canada. Retrieved October 4, 2019.
^ "Official Voting Results results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 7, 2021.
^ Elections Canada – Confirmed candidates for Saanich—Gulf Islands, 30 September 2015
^ Official Voting Results – Saanich—Gulf Islands
^ "Elections Canada Online – Final Candidates Election Expenses Limits". elections.ca. Archived from the original on August 15, 2015.
^ Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections
^ McCulloch, Sandra (September 24, 2008). "NDP candidate who quit over nudity will not be replaced". The Vancouver Sun. Retrieved September 20, 2017.

External links

Website of the Parliament of Canada
Website of the Conservative Party in Saanich Gulf Islands
Website of the Green Party
Website of the Liberal Party of Canada in Saanich Gulf Islands
Website of the New Democratic Party (NDP) in Saanich Gulf Islands

48°41′42″N 123°24′11″W / 48.695°N 123.403°W / 48.695; -123.403

[euro-5] Statistic includes all persons that did not make up part of a visible minority or an indigenous identity.

[EastAsian-6] Statistic includes total responses of "Chinese", "Korean", and "Japanese" under visible minority section on census.

[SoutheastAsian-7] Statistic includes total responses of "Filipino" and "Southeast Asian" under visible minority section on census.

[MiddleEastern-8] Statistic includes total responses of "West Asian" and "Arab" under visible minority section on census.

[Other-9] Statistic includes total responses of "Visible minority, n.i.e." and "Multiple visible minorities" under visible minority section on census.

[ReferenceA-1] Statistics Canada: 2011

[2021censusB-2] Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 26, 2022). "Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.

[2016census-3] Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 27, 2021). "Census Profile, 2016 Census". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.

[2011census-4] Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (November 27, 2015). "NHS Profile". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved February 15, 2023.

[10] "Census « Pundits' Guide to Canadian Federal Elections". Punditsguide.ca. Retrieved May 13, 2010.

[www12.statcan.gc.ca-11] "2011 National Household Survey Profile - Federal electoral district (2013 Representation Order)". May 8, 2013.

[report-12] Final Report – British Columbia

[timeline-13] Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts

[May_wins-14] Hunter, Justine (May 3, 2011). "Elizabeth May wins first seat for Greens". The Globe and Mail. Toronto. Archived from the original on May 7, 2011. Retrieved May 29, 2015.

[15] Harnett, Cindy E.; Lavoie, Judith; Wilson, Carla; Chamberlain, Adrian. "Elizabeth May makes political history as first Green MP; unseats cabinet minister". Vancouver Sun. Archived from the original on March 2, 2019. Retrieved March 30, 2020.

[16] Wintonyk, Darcy (May 2, 2011). "Green Party makes history: Elizabeth May wins seat". British Columbia CTV News. Retrieved March 30, 2020.

[17] Geyer, Felix von (May 3, 2011). "Canada's Green party looks to bright future following Elizabeth May victory | Felix von Geyer". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved March 30, 2020.

[18] "Election Night Results – September 20, 2021 Federal Election". Elections Canada. Retrieved September 28, 2021.

[19] "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 9, 2024.

[20] "List of confirmed candidates". Elections Canada. Retrieved October 4, 2019.

[21] "Official Voting Results results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 7, 2021.

[22] Elections Canada – Confirmed candidates for Saanich—Gulf Islands, 30 September 2015

[23] Official Voting Results – Saanich—Gulf Islands

[24] "Elections Canada Online – Final Candidates Election Expenses Limits". elections.ca. Archived from the original on August 15, 2015.

[25] Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections

[26] McCulloch, Sandra (September 24, 2008). "NDP candidate who quit over nudity will not be replaced". The Vancouver Sun. Retrieved September 20, 2017.

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Saanich—Gulf Islands

Demographics

Geography

History

Political geography

Riding associations

Members of Parliament

Current member of Parliament

Election results

See also

References

Notes

External links

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